06 October 2016 Rainfall figures for 2016 to date
Niuafo’ou
To date Niuafo’ou has seen below average rainfall (red) with only the April (green) monthly total exceeding the long term monthly average.
Niuatoputapu
To date Niuatoputapu has seen a high variation in terms of monthly rainfall with the effect of the 2015-16 El Nino apparent with the very dry period during the summer months (Jan to Mar). Later on there was dry spells during May, July and August but very wet during April, June and September.
Vava’u
Vava’u has also seen a high variation in monthly rainfall variability with the effects of the 2015-16 El Nino apparent with the dry period (except February-green) during the summer months (Jan to Apr-red). The February above average rainfall was due mainly to the rainfall associated with Tropical Cyclone Winston. Later on in the year there was some good rain in May, Jun and August (green) but very dry in July and September (red).
Ha’apai
The Ha’apai rainfall also shows high variations from the usual monthly average with 5 of the
9 months recorded so far in 2016 recording higher than average rainfall in February, March, May, June and August (green) and below average rainfall in January, April, July and September (red)
Tongatapu
Tongatapu’s rainfall distribution for 2016 is very similar to Ha’apai with good rains (green) prevailing over the usually drier months of April to June (green). Although there was also good rain in August, the drier than normal conditions in July and in September (red) has meant that there is already water stress experience in the start of October 2016.
Rainfall outlook for the next week 2 weeks
At the present time, it is apparent that there is low level moisture in the soil due to the below average conditions in July and September. At the present time, the next good rains that could relieve dry conditions in Niuafo’ou, Ha’apai, Tongatapu and ‘Eua could be Monday and Tuesday, 10th and 11th of this month (next week) but that is a medium range forecasts and is liable to change so water rationing is advised.
Figure above: Likely the next good rains could be early next week (10th and 11th of October 2016) from a tropical low likely to develop.
Extended Outlook
The extended rainfall outlook for the next 3 months is likely to be around average. But care should be taken as the average rainfall around October and November is around the 100mm mark in many places and may not be enough rain for farmers and water sensitive sectors. Especially if further below average rainfall persists. Irrigation, water storage and water rationing is still advised for water sensitive sectors in the coming 3 months.
ENDS
Issued by the: Ministry of Meteorology, Energy, Information, Disaster Management, Environment, Climate Change and Communications